Category Archives: European Union

A Referendum on the EU

In The Times this morning there is (as on all Saturdays) an opinion column written by Matthew Parris. I have huge respect for Mr Parris (although I do not always agree with him) so I do not want the following to be interpreted as a criticism of him. Anyway, I felt moved to put up a comment and then to share it with you. Here is what I said:-

Mr Parris, you said, “Even though it is not true that we were voting then only on membership of a common trading area the stakes did seem more modest.”

Well, as one of those sufficiently stupid and ill informed as to believe that what we were signing up to was not an organisation that was a step towards a federal Europe but something far more modest – stupid enough so that when asked to organise the “Yes” campaign in the constituency in which I then lived I agreed so to do– I find the complete lack of any reference to the democratic process in your piece astonishing. Indeed much of my time in recent weeks seems to be devoted to trying to atone for what I now see was a monumental error on my part.

That is the bit that fusses me. Do we or don’t we live in a democracy? If we do, then the people deserve the right to determine our future relationship with Europe – and that has been denied them because neither the Tories nor Labour have been sufficiently united to fight an election on this issue (and that would be almost impossible with our political system).

I am not, perhaps surprisingly, convinced as to whether we should or should not leave the EU. I am, however, not only convinced but doing all I can to ensure that the people of the UK are given the opportunity to take that decision.

Some say that the electorate are too ill informed to take such a decision. To them I say two things.

First, nobody is sufficiently well informed to take that decision (all the “facts” available are no more than informed – and at times well informed – opinions for who can “know” what the world will look like in five, ten or twenty years?) and certainly not Parliament.

Second, is you deny the people the right to speak can you continue to call yourself a democrat? I think not.

Referendums and democracy – again.

Ian Holman (@yarmouthian) and I had a Twitter exchange the other day which I want to use to introduce this blog which will be about referendums and could well take us nowhere. It started with a comment from him that caught my eye.

IH: Seriously hope UKIP’s disgraceful poster campaign backfires. Blatantly pandering to the ignorant and uneducated.

RW: @yarmouthian Are you surprised?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Sadly not.

RW: @yarmouthian If we could have a quick referendum, it would remove the point of UKIP and that would be good. Yes?

IH: @Rodney_Willett My preference is not to have one but I agree it would kill off UKIP

RW: @yarmouthian What’s wrong with having one?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Gives the largely uneducated public a vote on a single issue which they don’t fully understand

RW: @yarmouthian It’s the same public that votes for our MP’s. Some thoughts here (this was a link to my blog) and I would welcome your views on that

IH: @Rodney_Willett Interesting piece and a referendum would resolve the issue either way, I agree. My fear of a referendum is that many will vote no for the wrong reasons, i.e. not on economic grounds but because they ‘don’t like foreigners’.

RW: @yarmouthian Yes, that is a problem but how much do we value democracy?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Interesting debate. If there was referendum on death penalty, for example, vote may be in favour. Democratic but a result of lack of understanding of rule of law etc. Again a reason for not liking votes on single issues.

RW: @yarmouthian Yes, I have blogged about that problem too. It was tight but the right result in the end. But if not the people then who?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Point taken & tricky to argue against. Prefer to avoid referendums & allow govt., elected on manifesto, to make decisions.

The problem is, I feel, that we are both right. Yes, the people should be able to take major decisions about the way they are governed. Yes, the people cannot be expected to be sufficiently well informed to be trusted with taking major decisions about the way they are governed. It really is impossible to object to either sentence so where does that leave us?

When Ian says that he prefers to allow a government elected on a manifesto to make decisions, he is making the assumption that all matters of importance can be included in a manifesto. That was pretty much the case as the nineteenth century morphed into the twentieth. Then government was involved in far fewer areas of life than it is today and the divisions between the parties were fairly clear cut – for or against free trade, for or against the concept of workers’ unions and so on.

The Whigs, the Tories and the newcomers on the scene, the nascent Labour party all knew why they existed, what they were fighting for and for whom. By today’s standards, some of the things that were being fought for were unacceptable (the Tories), radical but on an intellectual rather than an emotional level (Whigs or Liberals if you prefer) and totally justified if fuelled by righteous anger which could be destructive (Labour).

So, if you voted for a politician you knew what he (no she’s then) stood for and the tribe he represented. You get a good feel of that if you read Ken Follett’s brilliant novel, “Fall of Giants” which deals with the period leading up the Great War and the tensions between the classes at that time.

Nowadays it is far more complicated as government has become more and more involved in the micro-management of the country (a move I deplore but that is another matter). One party wants to reduce the top rate of income tax, another to raise the income tax threshold. One party wants to restructure the NHS and another to provide it with more resources (although failing to explain exactly from where they are to come). Frankly, manifestos have become more a list of aspirations than of carefully costed and thoroughly researched proposals for action.

Meanwhile, since all of the manifestos will contain things that everyone likes, things that everyone dislikes and more things that most people do not care about it becomes impossible to decide which party would be best for the country (or even for each individual voter). That’s a sweeping statement but is probably realistic. To make matters worse, very few people believe that the politicians have any real intention of taking note of what they said in their manifestos and very few people realise that changing circumstances can render certain manifesto promises unachievable. One things of Clegg and tuition fees and Macmillan saying, feelingly, “Events, dear boy, events”.

Then there are matters – the EU is a perfect example – where the divisions in opinion do not follow party lines. So these matters never appear in a manifesto and the people have no opportunity to express an opinion.

In the end, elections are fought on other grounds: the likeability of the leaders, how they come over on the telly, the record of the last government (or, to be more accurate, the perception regarding the record of the last government) and, even though outdated and probably foolish, old tribal loyalties.

When canvassing I would often be told, “Well, my father/mother always voted Conservative/Liberal/Labour so . . .” Such people rarely said LibDems, their parents being too old to have taken that merger to heart.

Even more depressing was, “Oh, I shan’t be voting, they’re all as bad as one another,” or words to that effect.

So, just how should we look to decide on the two most important issues facing us today – the make-up of the UK and its relationship with the EU?

Next time I will try to tackle that question. Meanwhile if you have any ideas, I would be delighted to hear from you (whether by comment here, email to mail@rodneywillett.co.uk or on Twitter).

Together or apart?

More on Scottish independence.

Before I start, many thanks to all of you who left a comment or sent me an email following my last blog – all of which seemed well argued and reasonable even when coming to different conclusions. I have, I hope, taken on board what you are saying. This whole business is highly complicated and so I ask you to bear with me while I try to deconstruct it. This will, I fear, be over long and rather rambling. I have tried to avoid those pitfalls but there are so many strands to consider that I feel I have plunged into both.

In the beginning was a small group of people struggling to keep alive. They discovered that working together gave them a better chance of survival and so they formed a tribe. The problem was, of course, that the tribe was soon being run by the most powerful (but we’ll come back to in what way powerful) people and the others, generally speaking, had to do as they were told. However, it was a small group so the leader could hear what everyone had to say before taking a decision so one of the problems that we face today (the yawning gulf between the ruled and the rulers) did not exist. Even so, Alpha took the decisions and Omega had no choice but to go with it (despite feeling bitter that his ideas were – at least in his opinion – far superior) or get out and go it alone which he knew was not going to work.

Then circumstances dictated that the tribe was at risk and so were the neighbouring tribes. Although they didn’t care much for each other they did see that coming together and facing the problems with the increased resources this gave them was the only way forward at the time. So a federation of tribes was formed and the leaders of the various tribes formed a council to run the federation – until they hit a real crisis and could not agree on the right thing to do. At this point the Alpha of that council took control and, for a while, ruled supreme.

Then, of course, he overdid things and was assassinated by a group of other leaders who replaced him by the council until . . . Well, you get the idea.

The problem with grouping together is that it may have been the only option at one time but that life has moved on and whatever threat it was that brought everyone together no longer existed and so some of the tribal leaders began to object to being ruled by the federation and decided to withdraw from it. Until of course, another threat came along and then . . . Well, you get the idea.

What really started to put the cat among the pigeons was an idea that was first thought of in ancient Greece – an idea that we call democracy. Of course, it wasn’t anything like the democracy we enjoy – for a start it applied only to citizens of a small part of Greece with Athens at its centre and excluded the bulk of the population who were not citizens (many, indeed, being slaves). Nevertheless it was the start of something that we, generally speaking, consider to be a good thing (even when it fails to deliver what we want it to).

Then came bureaucracy. This was probably started by the Romans and it creates a system that makes it terribly difficult to change course quickly unless, as in those days, change is engendered by assassination and the fear of bloodshed. Actually, that still happens although we seem to have been able to avoid it here in the UK since the restoration.

The point I want to make is that the UK became the UK because at a certain point in the past it was to the advantage of enough people for it to be possible for groups (or nations if you prefer) to come together for a valid reason at that time (although this often included coercion because not all were in agreement with the links that were forged). You could say the same thing about the old ECC (I take the point made by Ronald). Then things change and the people running things change until the disadvantages associated with grouping together begin to outweigh the advantages – for at least a significant minority of the people: a big enough minority to make their voices heard.

In my view, that position has been reached in the EU and, I suspect, in the relationship between Westminster and the outlying parts of the UK. It feels so to me, at a mere two hundred and sixty-four miles from the seat of government: what it must feel like further away north of the border I can only imagine even though Scotland has a remarkable degree of self-determination (far more than the people of Devon) and could, I have no doubt, have more if it so desired. But . . .

Why is Scotland a part of the UK? The relationship between England and Scotland has been a difficult one. Although individual people from both sides of the border have forged great friendships, at a governmental level there have always been stresses. Finally (whether the Scots like it or not) they joined England in order to remain viable having lost most of their wealth in an unhappy investment. Now there is a real possibility that they would prefer to go it alone and I have no problems with that so long as the decisions are taken with the full facts available and the whole thing is done honestly and openly.

There are a number of reasons why that is probably a pious hope. Listening to Alan Bissett on the sound track of the video put up by Steve alerted me to one thing that is being bandied about and is neither honest or open: the accusation that Scotland is being governed by as elite.

All governments create an elite. It happens. There is an elite in every trades union, in every political party (including the SNP) and in every other grouping known to man. It happens because some people make better leaders than others and so form a new elite. To pretend otherwise is wrong.

I really do think that the people of Scotland deserve better than they are getting. They deserve to know where independence would take them in this democratic and bureaucratic world and they deserve an unemotional consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of togetherness and separation rather than the emotional appeals that seem to be the main thrust of those wishing for independence.

Next time I want to try and see how the proposed referendum stands up as a democratic exercise.

What was that you said? Oh, EU.

In the course of a discussion on Times on Line I became involved with an argument with a chap that was leaning towards becoming acrimonious. In the end I felt that this was both silly and sad and so I responded thus:

Truth be known, I suspect that we are in general agreement here but, as often happens, the places we disagree dominate the discussion. The problem is that there are a number of issues to consider.

1. We were enabled to vote on our joining the ECC – a common market with no pretensions to being aimed at political union. People will tell you that was obvious at the time. It wasn’t to many of us. I organised the “yes” campaign in  the constituency in which I then lived and it was not on the radar of most people at that time. Since then we have had no opportunity to vote on the “drift” towards a federal state. This is because for obvious reasons neither Labour nor Tory manifestos have ever made this an issue. Hence there is a serious democratic deficit here in the UK.

2. There is a further democratic deficit in the EU to consider. It may well have been the best thing for the Greeks (you will have seen that thought postulated here on ToL) but the fact remains that their prime minister was appointed not by the Greeks but by the ECB et al on the basis that funds would be with-held unless the Greeks did as they were told. Here the issues is: do you believe that it is right for people from one nation to control people in another EVEN WHEN THAT CONTROL IS BENEVOLENT.

3. Then there is the financial deficit within the EU. Put simply, the annual accounts gave never been of sufficient standard to convince any auditor to sign them off. If the EU were a company here in the UK, they would be facing very serious questions from HMRC – and rightly so.

4. One of the reasons I agreed to organise the “Yes” campaign back in the day was that I am old enough to remember the war and (of greater importance to me then as a small boy) the problems caused by rationing afterwards. The idea of binding Europe together to reduce the risk of conflict was very attractive. Now, however, some of the EU decisions – and especially the one that brought about the euro – have caused more tensions and at some point these tensions could easily end up in violence. That would be very sad.

5. This one to be ignored in that it is mentioning what is almost a non-issue: the economic arguments far and against the EU. I really cannot see that it matters. There is a good argument for staying in and an equally good argument for leaving.

So, there is much that is wrong and the ideal situation would be to get these things right and remain a member.  If they cannot be put right – i.e. if the status quo is to remain – then I would prefer to see us out of the club and, as far as I can see, this is the only place in which we disagree.

The end

What I would add is that for all the nonsense printed in the press the Conservative Party seems to me to be pretty united on this issue now: we need to renegotiate the way in which the EU impacts on the UK and we need to ask the people then to agree to stay in under the revised terms or to leave.

Historically I have wanted a three question referendum – one that includes some minimum demands. However, I am now persuaded (blame my MP Dr Sarah Wollaston for this) that such a course would be fraught with too many difficulties to be doable and I now think she is right.

What I really cannot understand is the attitude of the LibDems. If they really believe that the people of the UK want to remain in Europe then they should welcome a referendum and not be afraid of it, If they do not believe that the people of the UK want that then, as a party that embraces democracy, they should still welcome it and be happy to go with the decision made by the people.

I do understand Labour – they have a history of placing zero trust in the people. I just wish more people would wake up to that fact: those who do not trust you are not worthy of your trust in them.

 

IN – OUT – SHAKE IT ALL ABOUT

THe last few days have seen a lot of comments on various on-line editions of newspapers regarding the small matter of immigration from other EU countries into the UK.

Much of this is ill informed. Most of the people we take in do not come from other EU countries.

All of it, however is highly understandable and, whilst I do not always agree with the logic, I am with most of them in spirit. So what is this spirit thing that seems to be upsetting so many people? Well, my guess (it can be no more) is that at last people are thinking about the sovereignty of the UK Parliament. In other words, it is not so much immigration per se that is making people angry (I typed “cross” and realised it had to be stronger than that) as the feeling that our government has no control over EU immigration or the way these people are treated once they arrive.

If they come from somewhere else, our government has the ability to say “no” and, sometimes, to say “sorry but you do not qualify for such-and-such a benefit”. We may not be happy at the decisions the government takes but at least we can vote them out if we get cross enough – which we can’t do with the EU monster. So why the “sometimes”? Well, these guys from any country can, and do, appeal to the European Court of Human Rights to overturn decisions made by our government and judiciary.

And that, of course,raises other questions about sovereignty because (and this is another area which is much misunderstood) the ECHR has nothing whatsoever to do with the EU and we could opt out of that tomorrow if we wanted to.

Where does this lead me? Well, to a referendum to ask the electorate of the UK two questions:

EU – in or out?

ECHR (in this case the European Convention on Human Rights) – in or out?

Meanwhile, from deepest Devon, it seems to me that all our rulers are doing is “shaking it all about”.

The EU and its accounts

2013 09 14 sky

Something is really fussing me today: the inability of the EU to keep accounts that satisfy its own auditors even after many years in which to get things right. Herman van Rompuy, President of the EU, has now told the auditors to keep quiet because harping on about accounts that don’t add up is harming the image of the EU> I quote:

Your reports are not released into a void but into the rough and tumble of political life and media reporting. Every year, they generate headlines that “yet again the EU’s accounts have not been signed off”, with deceptive allegations of fraud and mismanagement. You and I know that such headlines can be misleading.

Given this media handling of information, and its impact on public opinion in some countries, the court might want to give some further thought as to how it can encourage more nuanced reporting. It’s important that citizens can have the whole picture with all its nuances.’

Actually, it is not in the least bit “important that citizens can have the whole picture with all its nuances” but it is absolutely vital that when you take money from tax payers you account for it in such a way as to ensure that an auditor can confirm that all is well. That is what auditors are there for: to demonstrate that there is no “fraud and mismanagement”. If they can’t, then that leaves behind a healthy suspicion that the allegations are far from deceptive – indeed, that they are spot on.

It seems that those in Downing Street agree with me. ‘The Prime Minister is absolutely clear that the only way to clear up concerns about Brussels spending is to shine more of a light on it, not less. This kind of nonsense is exactly why he wants to reform the EU and then let the British people have their say on membership.’ was the statement issued. Quite.

This was not meant to turn into an anti-EU rant, I blame Herman van Rompuy for this example of LUC. With any luck it will be back to crows soon with three more blogs: the danger facing the NHS, the extraordinary kindness of strangers to be found in our hospitals and clinics and a summons on behalf of people nearing the end of their life.

 

Economics versus politics

There is a letter in the Independent today over the signatures of the following: Roland Rudd, chairman, Business for New Europe; Dame Helen Alexander, chairman, UBM; Sir Win Bischoff , chairman, Lloyds Banking Group; Sir Richard Branson, founder, Virgin Group; Sir Roger Carr, chairman, Centrica; Sir Andrew Cahn, vice chairman, Nomura, public policy EMEA; David Cruickshank, chairman, Deloitte LLP; Lord Davies of Abersoch, vice chairman, Corsair Capital; Guy Dawson, director, ASA International; Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, deputy chairman, Scottish Power; Sir Adrian Montague, chairman, 3i; Nicolas Petrovic, CEO, Eurostar; Sir Michael Rake, chairman, BT; Anthony Salz, vice chairman, Rothschild; Sir Nicholas Scheele, chairman, Key Safety Systems Inc; Sir Nigel Sheinwald, non-executive director, Shell; Sir Martin Sorr elL, chief executive, WPP; Malcolm Sweeting, senior partner, Clifford Chance; Bill Winters, CEO, Renshaw Bay.

Two links for you: the letter itself and an article on the subject. In the printed edition that I saw, the headline was, “Leaving EU would be economic disaster, say business elite”

These leaders accuse eurosceptics of putting politics before economics. They are,of course, right. More to the point, so are the eurosceptics. Let me explain

Far be it for me to pit my brains against these captains of commerce but there are two problems with what they have to say. The first deals with the economic argument which I find unconvincing – probably because I have read and studied the arguments put forward from both sides and find all of them momentarily totally convincing. Thus I am forced to conclude that nobody actually knows anything and that everybody – including these people – are purely speculating. It is, I feel, I possible to know whether in, say, ten old fifteen years time the UK would be better off or worse off were it to remain in the EU.

To a large extent that will depend on two factors well outside the control of the UK or, indeed, the leaders in the other countries in the EU: what happens to the global economy and war (should there be one of international significance, which – with a heavy heart – I fear is more likely than not). Yes, if the UK leaves the EU it will lose influence within that organisation but you could equally well argue that membership of the EU (especially if the euro collapses or there are serious disagreements in the union) would reduce the UK’s influence elsewhere.

So, I am not inclined to take too much notice of the leaders of commerce who are making these statements. They are, after all, made from their perspective which is a very different one from that of the ordinary people in the UK and that takes us to the political arguments.

Basically there are two groups of people here who are concerned about our relationship with Europe. I find myself at odds with the first group: these are the people who feel that the UK can no longer cope with immigration. At odds but deeply sympathetic. Without immigrant labour prepared to work for wages that are less than many can receive on benefits we would not be able to harvest all our crops or see many other thankless and menial jobs undertaken. This, of course, is a harsh criticism of the mentality of dependence that has been engendered by the welfare state but you should not blame the people who see no point in working for less that they receive from the state. But, and this is often overlooked, it is not really these people who find themselves threatened by the immigrants but those who feel they no longer belong in communities in which they have lived all their lives and find themselves surrounded by those speaking in a foreign language, signs they cannot understand and shops totally alien to them. Yes they may well vocalise this disquiet by talking about “taking all our jobs” which is a nonsense but these people do not have the captains of industry speaking for them – they have nobody speaking for them except the hard right. Why has that been allowed to be the case? The real truth is that we are all immigrants even if some of us have been here a long time and without immigrants refreshing us, we would not have been the vibrant, thriving nation we were and could – and should – be again.

The others, and with these I totally identify, are the ones who continue to believe that democracy (for all its faults and failings of which I am horribly aware) is the only reasonable form of governance available to man: the only form of governance which is able to give all – rich and poor, clever and stupid, industrious and lazy, good and bad, useful and useless – a say in the way in which their society is run. This, to me, is more important than the economy for a nation divided unto itself can never be a reasonable place in which to live no matter how rich it may be unless, of course, you are one of the tiny elite sharing the bulk of that wealth.

And the EU has turned out to be fundamentally anti-democratic.

Should we stay in the EU? For a long time I have felt that the only way we could resolve that would be by using a referendum and I have striven for that for a long time. Oddly I have remained unsure as to how I would vote in such a referendum until quite recently. It was the realisation that those who were predicting the economic future to be bleak if we left the EU were really using guesswork rather than actual facts that made me reasonably sure that I would vote for leaving.

The views of these nineteen “business elite” have provided the final push – we must leave the EU before the ordinary folk of this country become slaves to pure materialism.

At the end of the letter is the following sentence: The benefits of membership overwhelmingly outweigh the costs, and to suggest otherwise is putting politics before economics. The first part of that sentence I believe to be no more than an opinion (and you could say “they would say that, wouldn’t they?”) and the second suggests the correct priority: politics first and economics second.