Tag Archives: EU

Balls and the EU

Isn’t it time that the cold light of day be allowed to shine in on this whole EU matter. There is no good economic reason for being a part of the EU (or if there is one I have yet to see it expressed by way of a convincing argument). There is no good economic reason for leaving the EU (or if there is one I have yet to see it expressed by way of a convincing argument). So, sorry Mt Clinton, for once it is NOT “it’s the economy, stupid”. In that case what is it all about? Well, it could just be that the EU has overstepped the mark when it comes to ignoring people. There are tensions building in the EU which are disturbingly similar to those that built up in the old Austro Hungarian Empire prior to WWI. Clearly these tensions have been created mainly by the introduction of the Euro – but the way that was handled was hardly a prime example of democracy at work. It could be that deep down a lot of people are beginning to think, “The EU is going to end badly – and fairly soon by the look of things. Perhaps the risks associated with taking the UK out as soon as we can in a planned, controlled and civilised way are far less than the risks associated with remaining in the club.” I’m not saying it is – but I for one am now coming round to that way of thinking. Up to now I have wanted the EU to sort out the democratic deficiencies it has created and become properly financially accountable and under those circumstances I would have voted to stay in the club. However, the handling of Greece (and whether we like it or not the people in Greece have spoken) in recent days suggests that the EU cannot offer any solution other than brute force. OL – economic brute force for now but . . . Now, if you don’t give a toss for democracy you will think very differently. If that is the case, please stand up and be counted AND tell us what form of governance you would suggest for all nation states in the EU.

Not That It Matters

For various reasons, we have created a division of Devonwriters (the name of the partnership within which I work) called Dartside Press. This is because the office is pretty close to the river Dart here in Devon and this division is going into publishing. We can afford to do this because of ebooks. To do so with printed books would be far too costly.

Even then there is a lot to learn and I decided that I wanted something simple on which to cut my teeth. The result is a compilation of some of the political stuff I wrote in 2011 and 2012 – suitable edited and embellished as required. It is called “Not That It Matters” for two reasons. The first is that it seems a pretty accurate title. The second is that it was the title of a delightful collection of essays written by A A Milne who, apart from his children’s books, was a brilliant writer in an era when writing styles were at their most elegant (a personal opinion, of course). Anyway, this was to doff my cap at him (and at his son near whom we once lived and who I knew slightly).

The book is priced at a very reasonable £1.83 but I am afraid is available from Amazon alone at the moment. I have another steep learning curve to climb before we publish in other formats but hope get there reasonably soon. Should you care to know more click here.

The economic arguments for and against the UK remaining in the EU

As some of you will know, I have been trying to come to a sensible view as to whether or not there are any economic advantages in remaining in the EU. I have read so many contrary views on the subject that I remain convinced that on this it is too close to call but that we should hear as wide a range of opinions as we can.

So I asked Paul Pizzala to write a blog for me and here it is. He trained as an economist (BA Hons Economics) and read Finance and Investing for his MA. Having worked for an investment bank in the City for a number of years, he decided to return to college (Schumacher College here in Dartington to be precise) and now holds an MSc in Holistic Sciences. He is presently Financial Director of the Totnes Renewable Energy Society.

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First I would like to thank Rodney for sponsoring my thoughts on this subject. To frame them my career background is in investment management with a degree in Economics and masters in finance and ecology.

From a career perspective these sorts of meditations seemed to arise on the brink of change inducing a flurry of economic and strategic analysis, in terms of competitive advantage and free trade, leading to a cost benefit analysis. The politics and economics are interwoven: as are issues of sovereignty, national identity and having a place at the negotiating table where powerful global institutions are deemed to shape the course of events and pecking order. Personally, I don’t have sufficient knowledge to untangle the economic and political framework in terms of the treaties that have been negotiated and what rights, subsidies and taxes they create and how this affects the terms of trade and the functioning of a particular economy in a global market.

For me the root question is: how can competition and collaboration be organised in a way that allows people and markets to promote well being which may result in very different ways of organising markets and free trade? The term free trade actually hides a historical imperative to be able to invest surplus capital internationally and for those countries with surplus capital to grow their economies and this has antecedents in any civil society that produces surplus usually in the expansion of boundaries. Clearly the best current example of this is the US at the vanguard of globalisation and free trade and the question of free trade is who is it actually free for and is it in the best interests of all participants? The historian AJP Taylor discusses the mobilisation of US capital post the second world war as the start of this monetary trend and, irrespective of the political and other motivations, it has created powerful forces that have become institutionalised through trade agreements and flows of international capital, goods, and services.

The typical economic analysis is that freedom of movement creates win-win situations aiding the development of economies and societies through creating new wealth and innovation, however it is wise to question these assumptions and to try and test them objectively in some ways according to other principles. In a a very brief conversation with Marc Faber (a well known investor and market commentator) I asked whether there was something better than the free market to organise wealth and well being and his answer was not socialism. This polarisation of view without testing assumptions and looking openly without conviction at other possibilities, in my experience, puts on the blinkers and generates an intense political charge around one sided ‘isms’, ideologues and fundamental positions that are shades of the same colour. It would be naïve to say that we are operating in a world with vested interests, bargaining positions and short term cycles and this does put strong constraints on the negotiating table.

As a recent student of ecology and organisational change, I believe that there are some objective tests of what a well ordered political economy should be delivering and looking at the data you can see the widening gap between ‘rich and poor’ in the most developed countries as wealth seems to ‘trickle up’ in to more concentrated pockets whilst government balance sheets strain under the cost of welfare. At the global level there is plenty of evidence to suggest that growing economies are not delivering increased levels of welfare. In fact they point to the reverse: after a certain point wealth seem to diminish welfare.

The debate of whether we should be ‘inside or outside’ the EU, in my view. depends on intentions and motivations and whether it is serving a particular group of political interests. I would like it to be more a question of how to open the conversation at all levels. It is not, in my view, healthy for a democratic elite to shape the agenda and the likelihood is that this debate will be just another example of short term and cyclical politics. Personally, I doubt that it will make a real difference to governance and welfare: the risks are skewed to the downside of executing and making it happen with all the potential for unintended consequences, which a fragile system of governance is not well equipped to handle.

Paul Pizzala

You may care to visit Paul’s blog/

A Referendum on the EU

In The Times this morning there is (as on all Saturdays) an opinion column written by Matthew Parris. I have huge respect for Mr Parris (although I do not always agree with him) so I do not want the following to be interpreted as a criticism of him. Anyway, I felt moved to put up a comment and then to share it with you. Here is what I said:-

Mr Parris, you said, “Even though it is not true that we were voting then only on membership of a common trading area the stakes did seem more modest.”

Well, as one of those sufficiently stupid and ill informed as to believe that what we were signing up to was not an organisation that was a step towards a federal Europe but something far more modest – stupid enough so that when asked to organise the “Yes” campaign in the constituency in which I then lived I agreed so to do– I find the complete lack of any reference to the democratic process in your piece astonishing. Indeed much of my time in recent weeks seems to be devoted to trying to atone for what I now see was a monumental error on my part.

That is the bit that fusses me. Do we or don’t we live in a democracy? If we do, then the people deserve the right to determine our future relationship with Europe – and that has been denied them because neither the Tories nor Labour have been sufficiently united to fight an election on this issue (and that would be almost impossible with our political system).

I am not, perhaps surprisingly, convinced as to whether we should or should not leave the EU. I am, however, not only convinced but doing all I can to ensure that the people of the UK are given the opportunity to take that decision.

Some say that the electorate are too ill informed to take such a decision. To them I say two things.

First, nobody is sufficiently well informed to take that decision (all the “facts” available are no more than informed – and at times well informed – opinions for who can “know” what the world will look like in five, ten or twenty years?) and certainly not Parliament.

Second, is you deny the people the right to speak can you continue to call yourself a democrat? I think not.

Referendums and democracy – again.

Ian Holman (@yarmouthian) and I had a Twitter exchange the other day which I want to use to introduce this blog which will be about referendums and could well take us nowhere. It started with a comment from him that caught my eye.

IH: Seriously hope UKIP’s disgraceful poster campaign backfires. Blatantly pandering to the ignorant and uneducated.

RW: @yarmouthian Are you surprised?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Sadly not.

RW: @yarmouthian If we could have a quick referendum, it would remove the point of UKIP and that would be good. Yes?

IH: @Rodney_Willett My preference is not to have one but I agree it would kill off UKIP

RW: @yarmouthian What’s wrong with having one?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Gives the largely uneducated public a vote on a single issue which they don’t fully understand

RW: @yarmouthian It’s the same public that votes for our MP’s. Some thoughts here (this was a link to my blog) and I would welcome your views on that

IH: @Rodney_Willett Interesting piece and a referendum would resolve the issue either way, I agree. My fear of a referendum is that many will vote no for the wrong reasons, i.e. not on economic grounds but because they ‘don’t like foreigners’.

RW: @yarmouthian Yes, that is a problem but how much do we value democracy?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Interesting debate. If there was referendum on death penalty, for example, vote may be in favour. Democratic but a result of lack of understanding of rule of law etc. Again a reason for not liking votes on single issues.

RW: @yarmouthian Yes, I have blogged about that problem too. It was tight but the right result in the end. But if not the people then who?

IH: @Rodney_Willett Point taken & tricky to argue against. Prefer to avoid referendums & allow govt., elected on manifesto, to make decisions.

The problem is, I feel, that we are both right. Yes, the people should be able to take major decisions about the way they are governed. Yes, the people cannot be expected to be sufficiently well informed to be trusted with taking major decisions about the way they are governed. It really is impossible to object to either sentence so where does that leave us?

When Ian says that he prefers to allow a government elected on a manifesto to make decisions, he is making the assumption that all matters of importance can be included in a manifesto. That was pretty much the case as the nineteenth century morphed into the twentieth. Then government was involved in far fewer areas of life than it is today and the divisions between the parties were fairly clear cut – for or against free trade, for or against the concept of workers’ unions and so on.

The Whigs, the Tories and the newcomers on the scene, the nascent Labour party all knew why they existed, what they were fighting for and for whom. By today’s standards, some of the things that were being fought for were unacceptable (the Tories), radical but on an intellectual rather than an emotional level (Whigs or Liberals if you prefer) and totally justified if fuelled by righteous anger which could be destructive (Labour).

So, if you voted for a politician you knew what he (no she’s then) stood for and the tribe he represented. You get a good feel of that if you read Ken Follett’s brilliant novel, “Fall of Giants” which deals with the period leading up the Great War and the tensions between the classes at that time.

Nowadays it is far more complicated as government has become more and more involved in the micro-management of the country (a move I deplore but that is another matter). One party wants to reduce the top rate of income tax, another to raise the income tax threshold. One party wants to restructure the NHS and another to provide it with more resources (although failing to explain exactly from where they are to come). Frankly, manifestos have become more a list of aspirations than of carefully costed and thoroughly researched proposals for action.

Meanwhile, since all of the manifestos will contain things that everyone likes, things that everyone dislikes and more things that most people do not care about it becomes impossible to decide which party would be best for the country (or even for each individual voter). That’s a sweeping statement but is probably realistic. To make matters worse, very few people believe that the politicians have any real intention of taking note of what they said in their manifestos and very few people realise that changing circumstances can render certain manifesto promises unachievable. One things of Clegg and tuition fees and Macmillan saying, feelingly, “Events, dear boy, events”.

Then there are matters – the EU is a perfect example – where the divisions in opinion do not follow party lines. So these matters never appear in a manifesto and the people have no opportunity to express an opinion.

In the end, elections are fought on other grounds: the likeability of the leaders, how they come over on the telly, the record of the last government (or, to be more accurate, the perception regarding the record of the last government) and, even though outdated and probably foolish, old tribal loyalties.

When canvassing I would often be told, “Well, my father/mother always voted Conservative/Liberal/Labour so . . .” Such people rarely said LibDems, their parents being too old to have taken that merger to heart.

Even more depressing was, “Oh, I shan’t be voting, they’re all as bad as one another,” or words to that effect.

So, just how should we look to decide on the two most important issues facing us today – the make-up of the UK and its relationship with the EU?

Next time I will try to tackle that question. Meanwhile if you have any ideas, I would be delighted to hear from you (whether by comment here, email to mail@rodneywillett.co.uk or on Twitter).

Together or apart?

More on Scottish independence.

Before I start, many thanks to all of you who left a comment or sent me an email following my last blog – all of which seemed well argued and reasonable even when coming to different conclusions. I have, I hope, taken on board what you are saying. This whole business is highly complicated and so I ask you to bear with me while I try to deconstruct it. This will, I fear, be over long and rather rambling. I have tried to avoid those pitfalls but there are so many strands to consider that I feel I have plunged into both.

In the beginning was a small group of people struggling to keep alive. They discovered that working together gave them a better chance of survival and so they formed a tribe. The problem was, of course, that the tribe was soon being run by the most powerful (but we’ll come back to in what way powerful) people and the others, generally speaking, had to do as they were told. However, it was a small group so the leader could hear what everyone had to say before taking a decision so one of the problems that we face today (the yawning gulf between the ruled and the rulers) did not exist. Even so, Alpha took the decisions and Omega had no choice but to go with it (despite feeling bitter that his ideas were – at least in his opinion – far superior) or get out and go it alone which he knew was not going to work.

Then circumstances dictated that the tribe was at risk and so were the neighbouring tribes. Although they didn’t care much for each other they did see that coming together and facing the problems with the increased resources this gave them was the only way forward at the time. So a federation of tribes was formed and the leaders of the various tribes formed a council to run the federation – until they hit a real crisis and could not agree on the right thing to do. At this point the Alpha of that council took control and, for a while, ruled supreme.

Then, of course, he overdid things and was assassinated by a group of other leaders who replaced him by the council until . . . Well, you get the idea.

The problem with grouping together is that it may have been the only option at one time but that life has moved on and whatever threat it was that brought everyone together no longer existed and so some of the tribal leaders began to object to being ruled by the federation and decided to withdraw from it. Until of course, another threat came along and then . . . Well, you get the idea.

What really started to put the cat among the pigeons was an idea that was first thought of in ancient Greece – an idea that we call democracy. Of course, it wasn’t anything like the democracy we enjoy – for a start it applied only to citizens of a small part of Greece with Athens at its centre and excluded the bulk of the population who were not citizens (many, indeed, being slaves). Nevertheless it was the start of something that we, generally speaking, consider to be a good thing (even when it fails to deliver what we want it to).

Then came bureaucracy. This was probably started by the Romans and it creates a system that makes it terribly difficult to change course quickly unless, as in those days, change is engendered by assassination and the fear of bloodshed. Actually, that still happens although we seem to have been able to avoid it here in the UK since the restoration.

The point I want to make is that the UK became the UK because at a certain point in the past it was to the advantage of enough people for it to be possible for groups (or nations if you prefer) to come together for a valid reason at that time (although this often included coercion because not all were in agreement with the links that were forged). You could say the same thing about the old ECC (I take the point made by Ronald). Then things change and the people running things change until the disadvantages associated with grouping together begin to outweigh the advantages – for at least a significant minority of the people: a big enough minority to make their voices heard.

In my view, that position has been reached in the EU and, I suspect, in the relationship between Westminster and the outlying parts of the UK. It feels so to me, at a mere two hundred and sixty-four miles from the seat of government: what it must feel like further away north of the border I can only imagine even though Scotland has a remarkable degree of self-determination (far more than the people of Devon) and could, I have no doubt, have more if it so desired. But . . .

Why is Scotland a part of the UK? The relationship between England and Scotland has been a difficult one. Although individual people from both sides of the border have forged great friendships, at a governmental level there have always been stresses. Finally (whether the Scots like it or not) they joined England in order to remain viable having lost most of their wealth in an unhappy investment. Now there is a real possibility that they would prefer to go it alone and I have no problems with that so long as the decisions are taken with the full facts available and the whole thing is done honestly and openly.

There are a number of reasons why that is probably a pious hope. Listening to Alan Bissett on the sound track of the video put up by Steve alerted me to one thing that is being bandied about and is neither honest or open: the accusation that Scotland is being governed by as elite.

All governments create an elite. It happens. There is an elite in every trades union, in every political party (including the SNP) and in every other grouping known to man. It happens because some people make better leaders than others and so form a new elite. To pretend otherwise is wrong.

I really do think that the people of Scotland deserve better than they are getting. They deserve to know where independence would take them in this democratic and bureaucratic world and they deserve an unemotional consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of togetherness and separation rather than the emotional appeals that seem to be the main thrust of those wishing for independence.

Next time I want to try and see how the proposed referendum stands up as a democratic exercise.

What was that you said? Oh, EU.

In the course of a discussion on Times on Line I became involved with an argument with a chap that was leaning towards becoming acrimonious. In the end I felt that this was both silly and sad and so I responded thus:

Truth be known, I suspect that we are in general agreement here but, as often happens, the places we disagree dominate the discussion. The problem is that there are a number of issues to consider.

1. We were enabled to vote on our joining the ECC – a common market with no pretensions to being aimed at political union. People will tell you that was obvious at the time. It wasn’t to many of us. I organised the “yes” campaign in  the constituency in which I then lived and it was not on the radar of most people at that time. Since then we have had no opportunity to vote on the “drift” towards a federal state. This is because for obvious reasons neither Labour nor Tory manifestos have ever made this an issue. Hence there is a serious democratic deficit here in the UK.

2. There is a further democratic deficit in the EU to consider. It may well have been the best thing for the Greeks (you will have seen that thought postulated here on ToL) but the fact remains that their prime minister was appointed not by the Greeks but by the ECB et al on the basis that funds would be with-held unless the Greeks did as they were told. Here the issues is: do you believe that it is right for people from one nation to control people in another EVEN WHEN THAT CONTROL IS BENEVOLENT.

3. Then there is the financial deficit within the EU. Put simply, the annual accounts gave never been of sufficient standard to convince any auditor to sign them off. If the EU were a company here in the UK, they would be facing very serious questions from HMRC – and rightly so.

4. One of the reasons I agreed to organise the “Yes” campaign back in the day was that I am old enough to remember the war and (of greater importance to me then as a small boy) the problems caused by rationing afterwards. The idea of binding Europe together to reduce the risk of conflict was very attractive. Now, however, some of the EU decisions – and especially the one that brought about the euro – have caused more tensions and at some point these tensions could easily end up in violence. That would be very sad.

5. This one to be ignored in that it is mentioning what is almost a non-issue: the economic arguments far and against the EU. I really cannot see that it matters. There is a good argument for staying in and an equally good argument for leaving.

So, there is much that is wrong and the ideal situation would be to get these things right and remain a member.  If they cannot be put right – i.e. if the status quo is to remain – then I would prefer to see us out of the club and, as far as I can see, this is the only place in which we disagree.

The end

What I would add is that for all the nonsense printed in the press the Conservative Party seems to me to be pretty united on this issue now: we need to renegotiate the way in which the EU impacts on the UK and we need to ask the people then to agree to stay in under the revised terms or to leave.

Historically I have wanted a three question referendum – one that includes some minimum demands. However, I am now persuaded (blame my MP Dr Sarah Wollaston for this) that such a course would be fraught with too many difficulties to be doable and I now think she is right.

What I really cannot understand is the attitude of the LibDems. If they really believe that the people of the UK want to remain in Europe then they should welcome a referendum and not be afraid of it, If they do not believe that the people of the UK want that then, as a party that embraces democracy, they should still welcome it and be happy to go with the decision made by the people.

I do understand Labour – they have a history of placing zero trust in the people. I just wish more people would wake up to that fact: those who do not trust you are not worthy of your trust in them.